Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. This threat appeared to be directed against the United States and the NATO Allies rather than towards Ukraine (such as with nuclear use on the battlefield). Putin first threatened the use of nuclear weapons when he resumed combat operations against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 (following his offensive in 2014). Fabian Hoffman and I made a similar argument in the Washington Post on 31 March 2022, but with this latest round of threats and reactions, it may be useful to examine the credibility of Putin’s threats in more detail.
Putin’s threats ring especially hollow because any use of nuclear weapons on territory he claims is part of Russia would be a disaster from a public and diplomatic point of view. They said that Biden was attempting to highlight the recklessness of Putin’s threats while continuing to send deterrence messages to Moscow. But as officials from the Biden administration told reporters afterward, there is no evidence that Russia is any closer to using nuclear weapons than it was at the end of February. On 6 October, US President Joe Biden stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent nuclear threats amounted to the most dangerous situation the world has seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, warning that any use of tactical nuclear weapons could lead to ‘Armageddon’.
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